(武汉工业大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430070)
摘 要: 针对岩体力学参数的未确知性,提出了基于证据理论的岩体力学参数信度估计方法。在构造岩体力学参数的识别框架上,对多个具有不同信度的抽样试验证据用Dempster-Shafer合成法则进行信度综合,从而获得在其识别框架上的基本可信度分配、信任函数和似真函数,并在此基础上,利用定义的类概率函数确定岩体力学参数的取值。应用实例表明,该方法在岩体力学参数的分析和选取上取得了较好的结果。
关键字: 证据理论;不确定性;信度;力学参数
based on evidence theory
（Institute of Civil Engineering and Architecture,
Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, P.R.China）
Abstract:Based on a mathematical theory of evidence and considering the uncertainty of rockmass mechanical parameters, a new method for belief estimation of rockmass mechanical parameters was presented, by which the frame of discernment of rockmass mechanical parameters was established. In consideration of different degrees of belief for many testing evidences of rockmass mechanical parameters, their total degree of belief was obtained with the Dempster-Shafer rule of combination. The basic probability assignments, belief functions, plausibility functions of rockmass mechanical parameters were given, and the belief estimation of rockmass mechanical parameters were determined with the defined functions similar to probabilistic properties. An example shows that the method applied in mining engineering for analysis and selection of rockmass mechanical parameters has obtained a satisfactory results.
Key words: theory of evidence; uncertainty; degree of belief; mechanical parameter
