(1. 中南大学 冶金与环境学院，长沙 410083； 2. 江西理工大学 冶金与化学工程学院，赣州 341000)
摘 要: 采用logistic模型、群体平衡模型、物质流分析方法分别对我国5种电器电子产品的平均拥有量和总拥有量、电子废弃物及废旧线路板的产生量、金属资源存量及开采潜力进行研究。结果表明：到2030年，我国电视机、电脑和手机的拥有量将分别达到776.49、463.65和1702.84百万台。我国5种典型电子废弃物和废旧电路板总产生量将分别达到280.73和29.92万t，废旧电路板中金、银、铜、锡、铅和锶的存量将分别达到119.5、305.7、60915、7897、5189和101.5 t。2015~2030年，我国典型电子废弃物及废旧电路板的产生量随着更新换代的速度加快、平均拥有量的增加、电器电子产品的使用寿命变短呈增长的趋势，但增长率较前15年(2001~2015)将放缓。
关键字: 电子废弃物；废旧线路板；群体平衡模型；物质流分析；金属资源；开采潜力预测
（1. School of Metallurgy and Environment, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; 2. School of Metallurgy and Chemical Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China）
Abstract:The average and total possession amounts of typical electrical electronic products were estimated using the logistic model. The generation amount of typical electronic waste and waste printed circuit board (WPCB) were estimated using the population balance model (PBM). Stock of metal resources in WPCB and exploitation potentiality prediction were analyzed with substance flow analysis (SFA). The results indicate that the total possession amount of television, computer and mobile phone are going to reach to 776.49 million, 463.65 million, 1702.84 million, respectively, in 2030. Generation amount of the five typical electronic waste and WPCB are going to reach to 280.73×104 and 29.92×104 t, respectively, in 2030. The stock quantities of gold, silver, copper, tin, lead and strontium contain in WPCB will reach to 119.5, 305.7, 60915, 7897, 5189 and 101.5 t, respectively, in 2030. In the period from 2015 to 2030, the generation amount of typical electronic waste and WPCB are growing with constantly updating function, design of electronic products and gradual shortening of service lifespan. But the growing speed will slow down, compared with the past 15 years (2001-2015).
Key words: electronic waste; waste printed circuit board; population balance model; substance flow analysis; metal resources; exploitation potentiality prediction
