(1.中国科学院 武汉岩土力学研究所，
岩土力学重点实验室，武汉 430071；
2.山东科技大学，泰安 271019；
3. 东北大学 资源与土木工程学院，沈阳 110004)
摘 要: 针对传统矿震预测理论和方法存在的问题及矿震本身的非线性动力学特征，基于胞映射理论和突变理论提出了“矿震系统的胞映射-突变预测模型”。该模型既考虑了矿震系统的非线性动力学本质，又利用胞映射理论消除了初值的随机性和矿震系统本身的内在随机性对预测结果的影响。分析实例表明，该模型可以更精确而客观地识别和预测矿震演化过程中的突变行为。
关键字: 矿震；非线性动力学；胞映射-突变预测模型
forecasting model of mine
quake system
（1.Key Laboratory of Rock and Soil Mechanics,
Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,
The Chinese Academy of Science,Wuhan 430071,China;
2.Shandong University of Science and Technology,
Tai′an 271019, China;
3.School of Resource and Civil Engineering,
Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004,China）
Abstract:Mine quake is a dynamic phenomenon of rock mass which is very harmful to mining. In allusion to the disadvantages of traditional forecasting theories and the nonlinear dynamic features of mine quake, “cell-mapping-catastrophic forecasting model of mine quake” is set up based on the cell-mapping theory and catastrophic theory. The nonlinear dynamic essences of mine quake is considered by the model, and the influences of random of initialized values of variables and the internal randomicity of mine quake on forecasting results are subtly eliminated with the cell-mapping theory. The example shows that the model can distinguish and forecast the catastrophic behaviors of the evolution of mine quake more accurately and objectively.
Key words: mine quake;nonlinear dynamics;cell-mapping -catastrophic forecasting model
