Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals

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中国有色金属学报

ZHONGGUO YOUSEJINSHU XUEBAO

第26卷    第11期    总第212期    2016年11月

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文章编号:1004-0609(2016)-11-2383-10
基于正交设计的露天转地下空区变形预测及可靠度分析
陈佳耀,史秀志,周 健,邱贤阳

(中南大学 资源与安全工程学院,长沙 410083)

摘 要: 科学分析地下采空区稳定性是实现铜绿山露天矿Ⅰ号矿体残矿安全高效回采的关键,考虑将间柱宽度d、空区跨度D、境界顶柱厚度h、尾砂堆高H等4个影响因素进行正交设计并运用FLAC3D模拟试验,对49组试验结果进行极差、方差及回归拟合分析,并结合安全系数与可靠度指标对残矿回采安全与效益进行评估。结果表明:4个因子与位移量W、安全系数F的拟合度较高,相关系数R2≥0.952,建立一个反映4因素下空区位移W的综合数学预测模型,结合工程应用证明预测模型的有效性;影响采空区稳定性的显著程度依次为H>d>h>D;并对比f0.05与F值,得到重要性排序为H>d>D>h,且均为不可忽视的重要因素;4个因子可靠度指标在F≥1.7时收敛开始于某值,此时安全系数与可靠度之间可达最优化,且收敛值大小满足H>d>h>D。

 

关键字: 正交试验;可靠度指标;数值模拟;露天坑堆尾;境界顶柱;

Deformation prediction and reliability analysis of underground mining shifted from open-pit based on orthogonal experiment
CHEN Jia-yao, SHI Xiu-zhi, ZHOU Jian, QIU Xian-yang

School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China

Abstract:The stability of underground mined-out area is the key technology for Tong-lü-shan underground mining shifted from open-pit of safely and efficiently stoping residual ore was analyzed. The orthogonal experiment and simulation software FLAC3D based on four influence factors including column thickness (d), gob area span (D), roof thickness (h) and height of tailing gangue (H) were estimated. The test results of 49 groups were analyzed by the means of range, variance and regression analysis, meanwhile using factor of safety and reliability index to assess the safety and efficiency of the recovery. The results indicate that the degree of fit between 4 factors and displacement (W) or safety factor (F) is good, and the correlation coefficient (R2) is more than 0.952. A mathematical forecasting model of displacement under 4 factors is obtained, which is proved effectively during the engineering practice. The significant degree of influence on the stability of mined out area during the 4 factors meets the relationship of H>d>h>D. The importance degree ranking meets H>d>D>h by the comparison of confidence interval f0.05 and F, all of these 4 factors can’t be ignored. The optimal degree of safety and reliability can be reached when safety factor is more than 1.7 and the reliability index begins to converge.

 

Key words: orthogonal experiment; reliability index; numerical simulation; tailings discharge into open-pit; boundary pillar

ISSN 1004-0609
CN 43-1238/TG
CODEN: ZYJXFK

ISSN 1003-6326
CN 43-1239/TG
CODEN: TNMCEW

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