Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals

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中国有色金属学报

ZHONGGUO YOUSEJINSHU XUEBAO

第10卷    第5期    总第38期    2000年10月

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文章编号:1004-0609(2000)05-0736-04
吹炼炉入炉铜锍品位的灰色预测
胡  军, 梅  炽, 李欣峰, 姚俊峰, 胡志坤

(中南工业大学 热工设备仿真与优化研究所, 长沙 410083)

摘 要:    根据灰色理论,采用新陈代谢灰色建模法对铜锍品位的历史数据建立了GM(1, 1)模型群,并对各维模型进行了精度检验,计算表明维数为4~6时模型精度达A级, 维数继续增大则模型的精度变差。 选出精度高的模型对当前加入连续吹炼炉的铜锍的品位进行预测并做均值化处理, 采用此法对现场90余班次的数据进行了预测计算, 与化验值相比, 预测值的平均绝对误差在±0.5%以内。

 

关键字:   灰色预测; 灰色模型; 铜锍品位;吹炼

Grey prediction grade of matte added into converting furnace
HU Jun, MEI Chi, LI Xinfeng, YAO Junfeng, HU Zhikun

Institute on Simulation & Optimization of PyroInstallations,Central South University of Technology, Changsha 410083, P.R.China

Abstract:Based on the grey theory, by adopting metabolism grey modeling method, a series of GM(1, 1) models for the historical matte grade data were developed, and the accuracy of each model was also tested.The result shows that the grade of the models' accuracy is A as the dimension of the sequence is from 4 to 6. The grade of matte currently added in the continuum converting furnace can be gained by averaging the predicted value of the highaccuracy models. The comparison between the predicted value and the assay result shows an average absolute error only ±0.5%.

 

Key words: grey predict; gray model; matte grade; converting

ISSN 1004-0609
CN 43-1238/TG
CODEN: ZYJXFK

ISSN 1003-6326
CN 43-1239/TG
CODEN: TNMCEW

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